Advancing Epidemiological Theory

This theme includes work by Dr. Toth, whose research program is centered around developing mathematical models that provide deeper insights into disease transmission, particularly within healthcare settings and regional networks of healthcare facilities. His work on differential-equation models has been instrumental in analyzing the spread of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) and COVID-19 across networks of healthcare facilities. Additionally, Dr. Toth’s work has been instrumental in quantifying the effects of spatial heterogeneity on disease spread, including a recent study that highlights the importance of geographic variability in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 as well as a recent study characterizing spatiotemporal variation in transmission heterogeneity. By understanding how these pathogens move through different populations and environments, Dr. Toth’s work helps to guide public health strategies aimed at reducing infection rates and improving patient outcomes.
Developing theoretical models that enhance the foundational understanding of key epidemic theory has remained an enduring thread in Dr. Keegan’s research program. This includes developing and refining models to better quantify the basic reproduction number (R0), a fundamental measure of disease transmission potential. Her research also explores the trade-offs between individual and population-level benefits of interventions, such as antibiotic treatment, and has contributed to the understanding of the interplay between vaccination and natural immunity in the context of COVID-19. While Dr. Keegan is heavily engaged in applied modeling for public health decision-making, this theoretical work remains a vital part of her research program, providing a strong foundation for the practical application of epidemiological models in real-world settings.